On October 15, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio was invited to attend the Global Economic Governance 50 Forum (GEG50) Closed-Door Seminar on the “Economic and Financial Cycle,” where he delivered a keynote speech and engaged in a high-level dialogue with Min ZHU, former Deputy Managing Director of the IMF and former Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China. The seminar was chaired and opened by Min ZHU, with over 100 distinguished guests in attendance, including expert members of the GEG50, alumni of Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance, and institutional partners.
Image: Min ZHU delivering opening remarks
In his keynote speech, Dalio reflected on his career and emphasized the importance of revisiting history. Drawing from 500 years of historical patterns, he identified five core forces behind the rise and fall of nations: monetary-credit-debt and economic cycles, domestic political order cycles, international geopolitical order cycles, natural forces such as droughts and floods, and human learning and technological innovation. He synthesized these into a global order cycle based on shifts in national standings, highlighting the prominent role of debt in each cycle: debt-to-income ratios rise persistently to a tipping point, straining central government cash flows and triggering debt monetization. He concluded by focusing on the debt challenges faced by major economies such as the United States, analyzing key imbalances in supply and demand, current accounts, and capital accounts.
Image: Ray Dalio delivering keynote speech
During the dialogue session, Min and Dalio discussed the current phase of the global order cycle, affirming that we are in the late stage of the debt cycle, with the status of gold reserves steadily rising. The specific trajectory of this evolution remains contingent on geopolitical developments and national policy responses. Addressing Min’s question on U.S.-China competition and global order transformation, Dalio noted that the world is shifting from multilateralism toward a “law of the jungle.” While mutual benefit remains possible, the “prisoner’s dilemma” is difficult to avoid in practice. Both of them agreed that in today’s landscape, maintaining internal strength and avoiding war are essential principles for both national development and individual life planning. They also pointed out that when fiat currencies fluctuate, the value of gold becomes more pronounced, making its inclusion in diversified asset portfolios critically important. Dalio specifically advised that for most investors, achieving balanced investment positions is more important than timing the market.
Image: High-level dialogue (Left: Ray Dalio, Right: Min ZHU)
In the final interactive session, attendees actively participated in discussions. Dalio provided in-depth responses to questions on topics such as China’s debt restructuring, RMB internationalization, U.S. government debt plans, U.S.-China AI competition, fundamental investment frameworks, and life planning for young people.
This seminar was hosted by the GEG50 and organized by Tsinghua University PBC School of Finance.