Asian Community: Strategic pivot of opening up under the new pattern of “dual circulation”

Abstract

The Asian economy has gradually emerged from the downturn brought about by the epidemic and is leading the global economic recovery in the post-epidemic period. However, the long-term absence of the Asian regional governance system not only hinders the pace of Asian economic recovery and weakens Asia's ability to drive global economic recovery, but also fails to play a positive role in the profound and complex changes in China-U.S. relations and the restructuring of the global economic order. To pursue our development in an uncertain world, this paper proposes the construction of an Asian community and analyzes the feasibility of establishing an Asian community in terms of practical logic and implementation path. Using the GTAP10 database, this paper analyzes China's “anti-decoupling” strategy and establishes a basic path for the realization of the AEC by using the “snowball” model and finds that: after fully considering the degree of political acceptance, the degree of economic benefits, and the impact on China's economy, the RCEP non-members will be able to realize the Asian Community in the future. The study found that, after fully considering the political recognition, economic benefits, and impact on China's economy, among the RCEP non-Wassenaar Agreement members, Laos and Cambodia will be prioritized to join the AEC; and among the non-RCEP non-Wassenaar Agreement members, Pakistan is the region that will gain the most from joining the AEC. Because of this, China should seize the “window period” to build an Asian community centered on China's market that meets the current requirements of the “domestic and international double cycle”, to contribute to the formation of the “stand like the legs of a tripod” governance structure between China and the U.S. and the formation of a long-term competitive coexistence between the U.S. and China. This will strengthen the Asian foundation for the long-term competitive coexistence between China and the U.S. and the formation of the global “stand like the legs of a tripod” governance.